Go for the 2
Air Force (8-4) vs. San Diego State (9-3) 7:30 pm (at Qualcomm Stadium-San Diego)
Notes:
San Diego State is 5-0 over the Falcons since 2010 and have won by an average margin of victory of 11.6 points per game. The Falcons are 2-4 on the road this season and have lost by an average margin of 14.7 points per game.
Air Force:
Offense:
The Falcons are averaging 34.4 points per game and rely on a triple option rushing attack that is averaging 323 yards per game. The Falcons have shown balance this season throwing the football and are passing for 138 yards per game which has kept opposing defenses off balance. Quarterback Karson Roberts filled in for former starter Nate Romine who was injured earlier in the year and has completed 52.8% of his passes for 1,411 yards with 9 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Roberts has also rushed for 591 yards on the ground with 9 touchdowns. Running back Jacobi Owens leads the team with 857 rushing yards averaging 5.0 yards per carry with 6 touchdowns. Wide receivers Jalin Robinette and Garrett Brown have combined for 47 receptions for 1,106 yards with 5 touchdowns. The duo have shown big play ability and can stretch San Diego State’s secondary off of play action.
Key offensive stats entering this game:
Air Force is converting 44% on third downs and on the road this year, the offense has converted 41% of their third down attempts. Air Force is rushing for 299 rushing yards per game on the road (24 yards less than their season average). In the team’s last three games against Utah State, Boise State and New Mexico-the Falcons passed for 239 yards per game with 6 passing touchdowns.
Defense:
The Falcons have given up 22.9 points per game and are very good in run support yielding 139 yards per game. The secondary has played this year and is surrendering 188 passing yards per game. Air Force has recorded 36 sacks on the year and is -4 in turnover margin.
Key defensive stats entering this game:
The Falcons are -10 in turnover margin on the road this season and must be able to force turnovers on the road. Air Force is allowing teams to convert on 35% of their third down opportunities and must force three and outs against the Aztecs. Last week the defense allowed New Mexico to rush for 377 yards on the ground and will face another blue collar offensive line in San Diego State.
San Diego State:
Offense:
The Aztecs rely on a “heavy” offensive line that wears down opposing defenses with their physical style of play. San Diego State is averaging 31.8 points per game and is rushing for 235 yards per game. The Aztecs work off of play action with quarterback Maxwell Smith and have passed for 138 yards per game. Running back Donnell Pumphrey is the key to the offense and will need him to have a solid night against the Falcons Bouncy Castle For Sale to dictate the tempo early on playing at home. Pumphrey leads the team 1,464 rushing yards averaging 5.4 yards per carry with 16 touchdowns and is a threat to take it to the house every time he touches the rock. Backup Chase Price is a tough inside runner that has added 889 yards averaging 5.5 yards per carry with 6 touchdowns. Maxwell Smith is a quarterback that plays within the system and makes solid decisions in leading his team. On the year, Smith has completed 55.% of his passes for 1,529 yards with 13 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Wide receiver Mikah Holder leads the team with 377 receiving yards with 5 touchdowns. On the year, San Diego State is converting 40% of their third down opportunities.
Key offensive stats entering this game:
In San Diego State’s last eight games against (Fresno St., Hawaii, San Jose St, Utah St., Colorado St., Wyoming, UNLV and Nevada), the team has rushed for over 200 yards in each of those games. During that span, the team is averaging 283 rushing yards per game.
Defense:
The Aztecs lead FBS in turnover margin with a +20 margin and have done it at home with a +11 margin. The unit is very good at stopping the run allowing 95 rushing yards per game and is good in pass coverage allowing 188 passing yards per game. San Diego State has recorded 33 sacks on the season.
Key defensive stats entering this game:
Over the past three games against Wyoming, UNLV and Nevada- the defense has allowed 59 rushing yards per game and 2 rushing touchdowns. Of the team’s 33 total sacks- 16 of them have come in the last three games. At home the secondary is allowing 151 passing yards per game to their opponents.
Listen to Joe’s show on Yahoo Sports Radio every Saturday morning from 10-11am EST at www.streamysr.com.
Joseph Lisi a former ABC Sports college football researcher, is the owner of www.GOFORTHE2.COM. He is a member if the FWAA (Football Writers Association Of America),Maxwell Football Club and is currently the content editor at www.2FiveSports.com.He contributes regularly to www.Sid-Rosenberg.com and has been a featured guest every Tuesday night from 10:30-11:30pm EST on Yahoo Sports Radio With Ken Thomson(www.sportsxradio.com). Joe has been featured on the FNTSY Sports Network and The Sid Rosenberg Sports Radio Show 640AM Sports (South Florida). You can follow him on Twitter: @Goforthe2. Joe has a weekly radio show on www.blogtalkradio.com with former Georgia Bulldogs WR Corey Allen called: THE NCAA WEEKLY BLITZ.
